terça-feira, 29 de julho de 2008

Brazilian Economy Expectancies

Yesterday Brazil's Centra Bank issued the results of the FOCUS Report, a weekly survey which finance institutes and banks tells what they expect for the brazilian economy. In English this report is called Focus-Market Readout. In my opinion it's an excellent indicator of expectancies (a kind of engine for stocks and interest rates).
In the 2008 first quarter (here in Brazil it mean JAN, FEB and MAR) it was possible to monitor the deterioration of inflationary status. The charts showed a high inclination. Now, I think there is an accommodation. The Market seems to believe in the BC's force in order to keeping raising the basic interest rate (SELIC) (It expects more elevations) and in the known effect over inflation. Unfortunately there are some side-effects: the expectancies of slowing the GDP elevation taxes that brings less investments that feeds unemployment reports... Let's take a look at the next chapters.

Read the Report here

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